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Post by stc13 on Jan 2, 2021 13:19:57 GMT -5
I've been thinking a lot about the relationship between indie wrestling and AEW lately from a few different angles, so hopefully I can pull the different thoughts together in a way that's semi-coherent.
For me one of the big questions in 2021 is "what does indie wrestling look like going forward?"
It felt like there was already a shift taking place in late 2019/early 2020, but COVID put everything on pause before it fully played out. AEW (and to some extent NXT) obviously skimmed off most of the talent that made up most of the more prominent super-indies over the past decade. CHIKARA and EVOLVE have closed. And at this point promotions like HoH, PWG, Shimmer, and Shine haven't run a show since 2019 and looked like they were running reduced schedules in 2020 pre-COVID. Between speaking out and NXT UK, it's very possible the European indie scene may be in critical condition. And wXw and Progress are very clearly basically WWE developmental programs moving forward. For many of these promotions, they question might be do they come back at all post-pandemic?
And it's not just the "drawing" talent that is off the board - AEW has scooped up a lot of blue chippers of what would have been the next wave of rising indie stars before they barely got onto the launch pad. Talent like Statlander, Anna Jay, Top Flight, Will Hobbs, etc probably would have developed into indie headliners over the next few years in a pre-AEW world, replacing talent that moved onto Japan, WWE, etc. But I've been watching a lot of old indie shows since Brodie's death, and it's interesting to see how guys like Kevin Owens, Brodie, Mox, the Bucks, etc evolved over a decade of working various independent promotions, and the range of styles and locker rooms that they were exposed to. AEW talent are obviously still able to work indies, but I think don't know if the financial realities give much incentive.
Time will tell whether the focused training and tv time ends up being more beneficial than "paying your dues" in making the next generation of stars. My guess is it will with the trainers and minds that AEW has in place. But that brings up interesting questions about AEW's developmental process vs WWE's. That probably warrants its own conversation, but Meltzer touched on it a bit during a recent WOL. And it sounds like we're also going to see developmental programs from WWE in Japan, India, and possibly Mexico soon to further muddy the waters.
The past 20 years of WWE hegemony created a really interesting indie wrestling scene that ultimately made AEW possible. But I think we're in for another seismic shift that in some ways was delayed by the pandemic, and in some others may be accelerated by it. Even though AEW and Impact allow talent to work outside dates, I think it's going to be tough from a financial perspective for a lot of these smaller promotions to continue forward.
Personally I think we may see GCW as the last "super indie" left standing, while some promotions/schools that have an "in" with getting talent signed - Thunder Rosa's Mission Pro, Booker T's ROW, etc - overtake some of the promotions that had been platforms for national exposure like Shimmer, Evolve, etc. I also think we'll see AEW formalize some type of feeder system to get talent reps in front of crowds, be that The Nightmare Factory starting a local show loop, affiliations with existing local promotions, or maybe even an "excursion" type model with something like the NWA.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2021 14:19:52 GMT -5
Great topic, something I've been thinking about myself lately.
The UK indie scene is pretty much DOA right now. What little life it had left has kinda been killed from covid. It was already in pretty critical condition post NXT UK, then speaking out and covid pretty much shot it down completely. You're right about wXw and Progress. Evolve was basically the same thing before it closed, and it makes those promotions not even really feel like true 'indie' promotions, but rather just NXT lite.
A fair amount of the big indie talent has been scooped up for sure. Even beyond the ones that AEW just scooped. The rascalz were big indie players since their impact situation allowed it, and all 3 of those are essentially off the board. (We don't know where Trey is going, but he's going somewhere). Alex Zayne was another huge guy over the summer that WWE grabbed, Ben Carter is off the market. Danhausen is now ROHausen, so he'll be likely appearing less.
GCW is actually having a bit of an issue right now too, and I don't know how its going to play out for them. They're in a battle with IWTV because they're unhappy with the contract they signed. They don't have control/ownership of their video library currently, IWTV does, and its become a hot button issue for GCW. It feels like GCW is trying to break through that barrier and elevate themselves to more of an MLW type level, which actually brings me to where my thoughts have been going. I don't think their company is in jeopardy or anything, just that they're in an interesting bind right now and I'm curious what direction its going to go for them.
I think in a way you're dead on here with your last comment, about promotions with connections. I know Tony has talked about Dark almost working as developmental at this point and I think he also alluded to wanting something more formalized. What I could easily see happening is him kind of 'sponsoring' some smaller level indies that act as feeder systems, and semi-absorbing them. Lending a few of the lower to mid card AEW guys and developmental guys for an indie show to help draw a gate, and keep AEW as the place to go to when you graduate from the indies. I don't think they'll end up with an NXT type system, too many of their top guys benefited from cutting their teeth on the indies, and there has been very little success overall from people who were exclusively NXT without a big indie background.
I don't know if what I'm describing makes sense, but I see independent wrestling healthy and thriving in 2021, just maybe not all the promotions it was in the past. I see Warrior Wrestling having a good 2021, and Black Label Pro enjoying a good amount of success in particular.
The places I really see having trouble in 2021 are more ROH and MLW. Too much weekly content around for those types of companies to thrive. I think MLW folds again in 2021.
Edit: I don't know that I'm being entirely accurate anymore when I call it independent wrestling, rather, I see small scale live wrestling thriving in 2021. It may not be truly independent anymore, but rather semi independent, similar to an MLB AAA type system.
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Post by stc13 on Jan 2, 2021 15:57:51 GMT -5
Agreed. I almost see it as a changing of the guard. Most of the notable indies of the last 20 years seem to be dead or on life support. Bar Wrestling, Evolve, Chikara, PWG basically got absorbed into AEW, Shimmer seems to be on its last legs, and ROH is basically just cheap filler content for Sinclair.
Totally agree on Warrior Wrestling. GCW tends to do too much deathmatch stuff for my taste, and I think that will put a ceiling on them. But I do think this will be a good year for independent wrestling on the whole, namely the small promotions who rely on locals and bring in a couple of outside talents per show. People are going to be chomping at the bit for any live entertainment they can get when it's safe, and I think those promotions with a strong local base will do really well.
AEW has been able to get by with Dark basically being a 2-3 hour indie show each week. But they'll have to change the format when Dynamite is able to hit the road again, and I'm interested to see what system TK decides to employ. I think the minor league/feeder league language is going to be very fitting. He's a guy with a sports background, and is very hands on with player development in their sports teams, so I think he's going to have some interesting ideas. And if they're successful...that's a game changer. For all they resources they've pumped into the PC, NXT has been a fantastic finishing school that has done next to nothing to create wrestlers who weren't already a semi-formed product.
I'm really interested to see what happens internationally, particularly in Japan and the Uk this year. AJPW and NOAH had a bit of a resurgence, and it'll be interesting to see what a year under Bushiroad does for Stardom - positive or negative. The UK situation is just a fascinating case study - the scene went super nova and shot out some really significant talent within a very short span, and now seems to be on life support. But Impact always seemed to have a strong fanbase there, and AEW had plans to run shows pre-pandemic. So maybe something happens to spark some life there.
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Post by Yambag Jones on Jan 3, 2021 15:35:58 GMT -5
The indies were already hurting pre-pandemic. I think there’s no going back for them either. WWE having like 200+ wrestlers under contract is bad for the business. Now anytime someone starts getting buzz, their price skyrockets. We’re going to see both places signing people who aren’t really ready to be signed (ie Top Flight and WWE’s latest signees). There are still people on the indies that I believe in and could draw, but there are no more Garganos or Ricochets out there.
As far as talent development, I’ve been pretty impressed with the AEW feeder system. Most of the talent on Dark has solid mid-card potential.
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Post by J'Dinkalage Morgoone on Jan 3, 2021 17:31:42 GMT -5
The indies were already hurting pre-pandemic. I think there’s no going back for them either. WWE having like 200+ wrestlers under contract is bad for the business. Now anytime someone starts getting buzz, their price skyrockets. We’re going to see both places signing people who aren’t really ready to be signed (ie Top Flight and WWE’s latest signees). There are still people on the indies that I believe in and could draw, but there are no more Garganos or Ricochets out there. As far as talent development, I’ve been pretty impressed with the AEW feeder system. Most of the talent on Dark has solid mid-card potential. yeah ROH has been done for years. Impact seems to be going in a good direction. It feels more indy now than old guy wwe leftovers how it was just a couple years ago. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2021 17:34:33 GMT -5
Definitely a changing of the guard. What form that ends up taking is still remain to be seen, but 100% a changing of the guard.
Who wasn't ready to be signed to WWE? Looking at their latest class it was people who were definitely ready. Alex Zayne was already doing stuff with NJPW over the summer, and the two Rascalz have been in Impact for a long time. They really like that other guy they signed too, he's already on TV and doing fine.
I don't think it's a bad thing that people's prices can go up. Indies have been historically full of scumbag promoters underpaying workers, if it forces those guys out of business and some other guys to come in with better business models that's not a bad thing.
There's a limit to both the amount of guys AEW and WWE can sign. It may be a small lull right now because most of the talent has been scooped up, but the only way to add more talent to the big leagues is to eventually trim other talent, who then head to smaller promotions and start taking indie appearances again too.
Like I said before I think the landscape is going to change a fair bit, and maybe won't be true 'independent' wrestling in the way we're used to, but I still think the future's really bright for it. I think it's going to look far more like a farm system than ever before, and that's a positive. Post pandemic whichever guys on dark don't get kept are going to have a lot more drawing power than they normally would have. There is still some serious talent out there too. Lio Rush and ACH have both been putting in a ton of indie appearances, Blake Christian is a hell of a prospect, as is his girlfriend Elayna Black. Isais Velasquez is quite talented. There may no longer be true Gargano's or Ricochet's out there atm, but they'll develop (I really see Blake Christian getting to that status), and to be honest, they shouldn't be out there if the market has the right amount of competition. Ricochet had to cut his teeth for way too long for his talent level. Ricochet wrestling in front of tiny crowds for no money meant there was a problem with the system.
Theoretically guys like Top Flight being signed this early should be beneficial for them. They can focus entirely on wrestling without having to worry about making ends meet. If AEW has any sort of development capabilities worth their salt (Which I think they do), then Top Flight should hit a higher ceiling because of being signed early, not less.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2021 18:54:38 GMT -5
The indies were already hurting pre-pandemic. I think there’s no going back for them either. WWE having like 200+ wrestlers under contract is bad for the business. Now anytime someone starts getting buzz, their price skyrockets. We’re going to see both places signing people who aren’t really ready to be signed (ie Top Flight and WWE’s latest signees). There are still people on the indies that I believe in and could draw, but there are no more Garganos or Ricochets out there. As far as talent development, I’ve been pretty impressed with the AEW feeder system. Most of the talent on Dark has solid mid-card potential. yeah ROH has been done for years. Impact seems to be going in a good direction. It feels more indy now than old guy wwe leftovers how it was just a couple years ago. ROH has been done since they lost the Elite. I guess that'd be about 2 years now. What little they had left just got crushed when Marty got implicated in speaking out. Impact did a very good job rebuilding after losing the overwhelming majority of their top end. Aries, Morrison, Cage, Lucha Bros, and LAX all leaving in short order was a very big blow, but they've done a really good job at rebuilding since then. Chris Bey and Ace Austin were amazing pickups. |
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Post by K5 on Jan 4, 2021 19:39:45 GMT -5
the state of the business is at a strange cross roads, where of all times it's easiest to get a big contract with a major company early but yet is difficult to get any true major exposure or momentum once signed.
I'm 30 and have a blown out disc in my lower back, but have been looking more into microdisectomy and the possibility of having a small run in wrestling. at worst I get some experiences in the ring and make some friends, at best I end up somewhere. despite possible limitations it's really not unrealistic when I've watched talent go from wrestling in Sarnia Ontario to Smash wrestling to Impact in a little under a year to two years time. The North's Josh Alexander is an example of that. the business' desire for upcoming talent seems insatiable currently.
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