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Post by Kliquid on Dec 28, 2011 14:24:05 GMT -5
I think top 4 you still take a RB. Rice, Foster, Peterson, McCoy, and MJD. But after that, I think you have to look at the elite QBs like Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. I'm not saying you take Stafford, Manning, Romo, or Ryan, definitely. It used to be, and a lot of people still susbcrbe to this, you take RB, RB, WR, QB, WR. Or something close to that. But to me, with the evolution of the NFL, QBs are more important than ever, because the gap between the elite and the middle of the road guys has grown much wider, similar to how it has always been with running backs. Even the best RB is only going to get you so many points average per week. But getting a guaranteed 30 a week from Rodgers, Brady, or Brees while others are only getting 15 from their QBs is absolutely back breaking. I used to NEVER take a QB in the first round, or even the first three rounds really. But now if you do that, and end up with Flacco as your starter, it's harder to recover from. I took Rodgers at the #8 this year, and I immediately hated myself for it, until the season progressed. I was still able to find solid RB help, and if GB hadn't laid an egg against KC, I would have won the Super Bowl. I guess it's just a long way to say that fantasy football has changed. Yeah, if you do wait on a QB, you have to absolutely nail it, or get incredibly lucky on the waiver wire. I think a lot people are underestimating just how weird the past couple seasons have been with absolutely RANDOM players who weren't even drafted in some leagues being monster fantasy producers. In 2011: Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Darren Sproles, Michael Bush, Eli Manning, Rob Gronkowski In 2010: Arian Foster, Mike Vick, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, Marcedes Lewis All of those guys went from being undrafted or drafted very late in most leagues to being STUDS who were mostly picked up off of the waiver wire. That kind of thing just doesn't happen very often in fantasy football. I think the important thing to remember isn't necessarily the total points that a player gets you. Even just "okay" quarterbacks typically score more than most RB's or WR's and almost all TE's, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're more valuable. As you said above, the important thing is the number of points more that they're scoring, on average, than the other team's player at that position. I always like to look at the discrepancy between the average PPG of the top-3 players at a position compared to the average PPG of the 10th or 20th best player at the position (for average leagues). 10 would be used for QB's and TE's (because each team has one starter at this position thus there are ten "starters" in the league), 20 would be used for RB's/WR's (you could even go deeper than this for leagues with flex positions, to like 25 or so). This formula gives you a general idea of what the difference between an "elite" player at a position is and what a low-end player at the same position would get you. So for example, if we look at quarterback, we'd take the average of the top 3 quarterbacks' points per game, which are Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. So using that, we come to about a 22.3 PPG average for these QB's. [By the way, for those wondering, Tim Tebow averaged 15.5 PPG in the games he started, which ranked him as the No. 7 fantasy QB in that category.]Now we do that with the 10th-best QB, which (hilariously enough) was Mark Sanchez. His average is 13.6 PPG. So between the top 3 and the 10th best QB's, we have about an 8.7 PPG difference, which translates to about 64% better statistics from the elite QB's to the mediocre QB's. If we do that same formula with the RB's, we see that LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice and Arian Foster averaged almost exactly 16 points per between the three of them. This number is also slightly deflated because Arian Foster missed a few games, but we'll keep it there anyway to make things more simplistic. So then we take the No. 20 RB, which was Cedric Benson, and we find his PPG was about 8.2. This translates to about a 7.8 PPG difference between him and the elite RB's, which means a 95% difference between the elite and the mediocre RB's. Using this formula, we see that while the quarterback position is absolutely the highest scoring position, the difference in percentage of points between an elite QB and a mediocre QB is not quite at the difference between an elite RB and a mediocre RB. ------ Of course, this theory doesn't take into consideration that you have to KNOW the results of this before the season. You have to be able to hit on your picks, and that's always what fantasy football comes down to. You can have all the statistical knowledge in the world. You can understand that taking Philip Rivers in the third round isn't a good choice when you can have Eli Manning in the ninth round. Or you can have all the statistical evidence in the world that Jamaal Charles should have a great season and Mike Vick will fall flat on his face... But if your guys get hurt or underperform for whatever reason, while other people take a guy like Drew Brees in the first round (even though his ADP was a third round pick), that person is still going to come out looking like a genius even when they made the wrong mathematical move going into the season. So I guess what I'm saying is that in theory getting an elite RB is still more important than getting an elite QB. The problem is that predicting who are going to be the elite RB's is becoming increasingly difficult over the years, so playing it safe with an almost guaranteed elite player at quarterback might be a wise decision if you're not picking from the elite of the elite RB's early in your draft.
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Post by Ace Bennett on Dec 28, 2011 16:09:54 GMT -5
My undefeated team's first three picks were Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Drew Brees.
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Post by King Bálor (CM)™ on Dec 28, 2011 18:59:53 GMT -5
This season has really shown that having a top QB in fantasy is becoming just as, if not more important than having a top RB. As more teams go to dual backfields, and with the lack of top guys, or just their inconsistency, it's hard to justify taking many of them over guys like Rodgers, Brady, and Brees. I know the rarity makes guys like Rice or Peterson more valuable, but most league champions you see this year, had a top QB. Not to mention how the new safety rules protect QBs....they are less likely to get injured unlike the RBs.
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Post by Joey Cush on Dec 28, 2011 19:08:22 GMT -5
Brian Cushing not making Pro Bowl is bullsh*t, honestly.
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Post by Kliquid on Dec 28, 2011 19:33:42 GMT -5
My undefeated team's first three picks were Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Drew Brees. Wow, how far did Calvin slip? Did you take Adrian No. 1 overall?
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Post by captain master talbot on Dec 28, 2011 21:23:25 GMT -5
called eli breaking out this year
but its not hard when i say that before every season
suck it
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Jamal
Main Eventer
Joined on: Nov 24, 2005 14:53:44 GMT -5
Posts: 4,877
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Post by Jamal on Dec 28, 2011 21:52:38 GMT -5
Brian Cushing not making Pro Bowl is bullsh*t, honestly. Agreed. I don't know he ended the year, but 3 quarters in, he was playing at an all-pro level.
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Post by Ace Bennett on Dec 29, 2011 0:27:16 GMT -5
My undefeated team's first three picks were Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Drew Brees. Wow, how far did Calvin slip? Did you take Adrian No. 1 overall? Yeah, he slipped quite a bit. I was excited to get him at number 20. Looking at my draft recap, it's actually kind of funny. After my top four picks (Ahmad Bradshaw being my fourth rounder), I didn't draft well at all. I got Jimmy Graham and Willis McGahee late, and Jahvid Best had a few good games before injury but other than that I drafted a ton of busts. Mike Williams, Daniel Thomas, Sidney Rice, Roy Williams, Javon Ringer, and Donovan McNabb yikes. I've always been a waiver wire rider. Someone was stupid enough to drop Marques Colston early in the season, and Roy Helu and Darren Sproles were also notable adds that have done some significant damage for me. I will be taking a QB in the first three rounds in future fantasy football seasons, that is the main thing I took away from this. Also, receivers are much easier to come by than running backs.
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Post by T R W on Dec 29, 2011 8:09:03 GMT -5
I think top 4 you still take a RB. Rice, Foster, Peterson, McCoy, and MJD. But after that, I think you have to look at the elite QBs like Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. I'm not saying you take Stafford, Manning, Romo, or Ryan, definitely. It used to be, and a lot of people still susbcrbe to this, you take RB, RB, WR, QB, WR. Or something close to that. But to me, with the evolution of the NFL, QBs are more important than ever, because the gap between the elite and the middle of the road guys has grown much wider, similar to how it has always been with running backs. Even the best RB is only going to get you so many points average per week. But getting a guaranteed 30 a week from Rodgers, Brady, or Brees while others are only getting 15 from their QBs is absolutely back breaking. I used to NEVER take a QB in the first round, or even the first three rounds really. But now if you do that, and end up with Flacco as your starter, it's harder to recover from. I took Rodgers at the #8 this year, and I immediately hated myself for it, until the season progressed. I was still able to find solid RB help, and if GB hadn't laid an egg against KC, I would have won the Super Bowl. I guess it's just a long way to say that fantasy football has changed. Yeah, if you do wait on a QB, you have to absolutely nail it, or get incredibly lucky on the waiver wire. I think a lot people are underestimating just how weird the past couple seasons have been with absolutely RANDOM players who weren't even drafted in some leagues being monster fantasy producers. In 2011: Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson, Darren Sproles, Michael Bush, Eli Manning, Rob Gronkowski In 2010: Arian Foster, Mike Vick, Peyton Hillis, Brandon Lloyd, Steve Johnson, Marcedes Lewis All of those guys went from being undrafted or drafted very late in most leagues to being STUDS who were mostly picked up off of the waiver wire. That kind of thing just doesn't happen very often in fantasy football. I think the important thing to remember isn't necessarily the total points that a player gets you. Even just "okay" quarterbacks typically score more than most RB's or WR's and almost all TE's, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're more valuable. As you said above, the important thing is the number of points more that they're scoring, on average, than the other team's player at that position. I always like to look at the discrepancy between the average PPG of the top-3 players at a position compared to the average PPG of the 10th or 20th best player at the position (for average leagues). 10 would be used for QB's and TE's (because each team has one starter at this position thus there are ten "starters" in the league), 20 would be used for RB's/WR's (you could even go deeper than this for leagues with flex positions, to like 25 or so). This formula gives you a general idea of what the difference between an "elite" player at a position is and what a low-end player at the same position would get you. So for example, if we look at quarterback, we'd take the average of the top 3 quarterbacks' points per game, which are Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. So using that, we come to about a 22.3 PPG average for these QB's. [By the way, for those wondering, Tim Tebow averaged 15.5 PPG in the games he started, which ranked him as the No. 7 fantasy QB in that category.]Now we do that with the 10th-best QB, which (hilariously enough) was Mark Sanchez. His average is 13.6 PPG. So between the top 3 and the 10th best QB's, we have about an 8.7 PPG difference, which translates to about 64% better statistics from the elite QB's to the mediocre QB's. If we do that same formula with the RB's, we see that LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice and Arian Foster averaged almost exactly 16 points per between the three of them. This number is also slightly deflated because Arian Foster missed a few games, but we'll keep it there anyway to make things more simplistic. So then we take the No. 20 RB, which was Cedric Benson, and we find his PPG was about 8.2. This translates to about a 7.8 PPG difference between him and the elite RB's, which means a 95% difference between the elite and the mediocre RB's. Using this formula, we see that while the quarterback position is absolutely the highest scoring position, the difference in percentage of points between an elite QB and a mediocre QB is not quite at the difference between an elite RB and a mediocre RB. ------ Of course, this theory doesn't take into consideration that you have to KNOW the results of this before the season. You have to be able to hit on your picks, and that's always what fantasy football comes down to. You can have all the statistical knowledge in the world. You can understand that taking Philip Rivers in the third round isn't a good choice when you can have Eli Manning in the ninth round. Or you can have all the statistical evidence in the world that Jamaal Charles should have a great season and Mike Vick will fall flat on his face... But if your guys get hurt or underperform for whatever reason, while other people take a guy like Drew Brees in the first round (even though his ADP was a third round pick), that person is still going to come out looking like a genius even when they made the wrong mathematical move going into the season. So I guess what I'm saying is that in theory getting an elite RB is still more important than getting an elite QB. The problem is that predicting who are going to be the elite RB's is becoming increasingly difficult over the years, so playing it safe with an almost guaranteed elite player at quarterback might be a wise decision if you're not picking from the elite of the elite RB's early in your draft. I think we both typed a lot of words to say that we agree with each other. lol I've been playing FF since 1991, so it has been interesting watching the evolution of the game.
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Post by Kliquid on Dec 29, 2011 13:50:04 GMT -5
Yeah I didn't mean that I was necessarily disagreeing. I think it's just an interesting concept to delve deeper into than just a simple "yes or no" when it comes to drafting QB's early.
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Post by Jean-Ralphio on Dec 29, 2011 19:16:06 GMT -5
It really is amazing with how great the Patriots have been this year considering how AWFUL their draft was.....Solder so far has been good, but to get NOTHING out of the first pick in the 2nd round (Dowling) virtually nothing from their other 2nd, and their two 3rd rounders.
Shane Vareen and Dowling totally useless, Mallett on the bench all year, Ridley at times shows glimpses.
Sigh
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Post by Kliquid on Dec 29, 2011 19:24:18 GMT -5
Honestly, I think the Patriots' drafting ability has been overrated over the years. They've found some real gems, but they've missed on as many early picks as any team in the league, it seems.
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Post by captain master talbot on Dec 29, 2011 19:27:37 GMT -5
Honestly, I think the Patriots' drafting ability has been overrated over the years. They've found some real gems, but they've missed on as many early picks as any team in the league, it seems. Yea, it seems like the sheer amount of picks they have overshadow or make up for the actual picks.
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Post by Jean-Ralphio on Dec 29, 2011 19:29:18 GMT -5
Honestly, I think the Patriots' drafting ability has been overrated over the years. They've found some real gems, but they've missed on as many early picks as any team in the league, it seems. Oh yeah, BB is a terrible drafter. Some times things arent his fault (Jermaine Cunningham, Brandon Spikes) but I Taylor Price, Bethel Johnson, almost all of the 2011 draft, trading the pick that was Clay Matthews, trading the pick that was Micahel Oher, Darius Butler/Ron Brace Jesus, makes my head hurt
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Post by Greg Weinstein on Jan 1, 2012 13:41:28 GMT -5
Ugh, that Patriots defense is ing awful.
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Alpha Q Up
Main Eventer
Not gravitas
Joined on: Jun 20, 2010 21:48:13 GMT -5
Posts: 2,691
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Post by Alpha Q Up on Jan 1, 2012 13:47:20 GMT -5
If the Steelers or Ravens (and maybe even the Texans if they still had Schuab) get anywhere near the Patriots in the playoffs, they're one and done. In other news, I hope the 49ers clinch the 2nd seed.. the Saints, it's almost impossible to beat them in that dome.
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Post by Jean-Ralphio on Jan 1, 2012 14:35:23 GMT -5
Patriots beat the Ravens already and I am sure they could beat the Steelers.
Last time I checked, having Tom Brady counts for something
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Alpha Q Up
Main Eventer
Not gravitas
Joined on: Jun 20, 2010 21:48:13 GMT -5
Posts: 2,691
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Post by Alpha Q Up on Jan 1, 2012 15:02:34 GMT -5
Patriots beat the Ravens already and I am sure they could beat the Steelers. Last time I checked, having Tom Brady counts for something There's only so much Brady can do..
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Post by Jean-Ralphio on Jan 1, 2012 15:11:21 GMT -5
Patriots beat the Ravens already and I am sure they could beat the Steelers. Last time I checked, having Tom Brady counts for something There's only so much Brady can do.. Yeah like win 3 Super Bowls and lead the team to 13 wins so far this year
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Post by Jean-Ralphio on Jan 1, 2012 15:12:12 GMT -5
And to come back from 21 points down to take the lead in the game
#ONLYSOMUCHBRADYCANDO
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