This season has really shown that having a top QB in fantasy is becoming just as, if not more important than having a top RB. As more teams go to dual backfields, and with the lack of top guys, or just their inconsistency, it's hard to justify taking many of them over guys like Rodgers, Brady, and Brees. I know the rarity makes guys like Rice or Peterson more valuable, but most league champions you see this year, had a top QB.
That's kind of the research that I'm trying to do.
Although I agree with you to some extent, I think when we say, "top QB," we're being pretty loose with our definition. There are at least a handful of guys who realistically could've been your fantasy starter and you could've been extremely successful...
Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford were all what I'd define as "elite" fantasy options this year.
Even Tony Romo, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan were pretty good, although Romo might've screwed quite a few people by getting hurt and dropping a goose-egg in Week 16. But who could've predicted that, you know? There are probably some people who even had Tim Tebow as their starter in the finals.
So I guess what I'm saying is that I think it's important to
hit on the quarterback position... However, I still am not sold at the moment on selecting a QB early in the first round.
If we determine that there are between 6-8 quarterbacks (perhaps one more if Peyton Manning is healthy by 2012) who realistically could be good enough to win you a championship, then if you're in an 8-team league, quarterbacks are something you can wait on. In a 10-team league, you are still more likely to have an elite QB than not (so long as you pick one SOMEWHAT early, in the first 4-5 rounds). In a 12-team league, it's becoming very obvious that an elite QB is needed and should be selected early.
Even if you determine that there are only 5 or so, that's still half the league who will have one if you're in a standard 10-team league.
I still am going to strongly advocate against taking a QB in the top few picks of any draft. Past five, I can no longer say it's a terrible choice to select someone like Aaron Rodgers. But like I said with a guy like Mike Vick this year, if you're going to take a QB in round one, you need to make it someone who is likely to play the whole season -- and at this point, although they are great QB's when they do play, both Vick and Matt Stafford are way too shaky to take in the first round - or even the second round - of a fantasy draft.
A lot of craziness happened at the running back position this year. It happens every year, but this year felt particularly out of control.
The top 10 RB's selected in standard 10-team leagues were:
Adrian Peterson - Tore his ACL at the end of the year and battled other injuries down the stretch. Missed the equivalent of about 4 total games, but still finished as a rock-solid top-10 RB on the year.
Ray Rice - Was a stud all year, finished 2nd among RB's, right where you hoped he'd be if you took him No. 2 overall
Arian Foster - Came back from injury after essentially missing the first three games with an injury, still finished as the No. 3 fantasy back.
Chris Johnson - Monumental collapse. Absolutely atrocious statistics for a guy who was the No. 1 scoring player in many leagues just two seasons ago. No real injury to speak of, the passing game was BETTER than it was in previous years and he still was terrible. People will blame this on the holdout, but who really knows what happened?
Jamaal Charles - Tore his ACL in the first week.
LeSean McCoy - Absolute baller. Finished as the No. 1 RB, scored 72% more points than the No. 5 overall RB in standard scoring leagues. Particularly studly in PPR leagues.
Rashard Mendenhall - Bust. Perhaps the most irritating player to own at the RB position this year given that there was just absolutely no consistency in anything he did. Up one week, down the next, mediocre after that, then down again... It was a rollercoaster ride that took owners on more lows than highs.
Maurice Jones-Drew - Remains rock solid despite being on a mediocre team, year-in, year-out. Finished as the No. 4 RB and finished the year on an eight week streak of double-digit fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. Had only one week of non-double-digits in full PPR leagues. He may not be the flashy pick, but he's proving to be someone who can be relied on as a great middle-to-low end RB1 or an elite RB2 every year.
Darren McFadden - Was a baller when he was healthy, but missed almost the entire season with various injuries. Health continues to be the concern with McFadden and although he was a 2nd-round pick in most leagues, he was still a bust overall.
Michael Turner - Essentially a lesser-version of Maurice Jones-Drew, I'd say. His value takes a hit in PPR leagues, but he's still a very consistent RB for the most part, although his stats have taken a dip at the end of the year when fantasy owners needed him the most. Still, he had a few nice games at the beginning of the year that likely helped owners get into the win column.
Those were the top-10, as drafted. Half of them dealt with significant injuries throughout the year. This is what has tended to be the biggest positive among elite QB's. With the exception of Mike Vick, most of the elite QB's have typically been pretty healthy throughout the years. Guys like Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady have been relatively safe picks throughout the years, with the obvious exceptions being Manning this year and Brady when he tore his ACL. But even after his ACL injury, Brady didn't seem to miss a beat. Manning could very well be the same way.
It's this comfortable elite scorer that has helped anchor many fantasy teams to a championship. However, selecting a quarterback in the first round also means that you probably have to hit on at least one "surprise" players at another position. If you took Rodgers at No. 5 overall for example, you probably had a choice between guys like Michael Turner, Darren McFadden and Frank Gore in the second round or Felix Jones, Shonn Greene, Peyton Hillis and Matt Forte in the third round... If you hit on one of those two picks, you probably ended up OK. But if you skipped out on a RB in the second round and took a WR like Vincent Jackson and then a RB like Peyton Hillis in the third as your RB1, you probably missed out on the playoffs (unless you made amazing waiver wire moves) even though you had the No. 1 scoring overall player. BTW, going by ADP from the beginning of the season, this is a realistic scenario.
To me, injuries at the RB position are the biggest concern, in addition to what TRW said regarding the NFL's transition to dual-back systems.
As more teams begin utilizing dual-back systems, I believe that the value of the TOP running backs actually
increases. However, the risk of taking one of those elite RB's is that if he gets hurt, you are likely screwed.
It's all about opportunity. If you're at the top of a draft, I still think you need to go RB. Get someone like Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, even Adrian Peterson. But after that, in my opinion, I think it might be wisest to start looking at QB's or the
elite of the elite WR's like Calvin Johnson, Roddy White or even Larry Fitzgerald. If you're in PPR leagues, then throw Wes Welker into that mix as well.
Yes, one of those elite RB's is probably going to get hurt... But that's the risk you take.
There are going to be inciting guys at the end of the first round like there always are when it comes to RB's. There was reason to believe that both Rashard Mendenhall and Darren McFadden were going to be stud RB's this year and many people took them as their team's first round pick, but ended up falling flat on their faces for that decision. That seems to happen almost every year. In 2010, it was Steven Jackson, Frank Gore and Ryan Mathews at the end of round 1. In 2009, it was LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson and Steve Slaton. None of them ended up being close to elite RB's.
So after the "elite" crop of RB's, if you select a QB like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Cam Newton or Tom Brady; you can easily opt to put that together with a more consistent, lower-risk player like Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, or Frank Gore in the second or even potentially third rounds. They're not going to be the No. 1 overall RB, but combining them with an every-week high scoring QB will make for a very tough to beat team that scores high points from week to week. You may not have the super-highs, but the super-lows should be fewer and further between for you.