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Post by Kliquid on Feb 29, 2012 17:39:28 GMT -5
Ron Paul in Four Years
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Post by Kliquid on Mar 1, 2012 17:16:31 GMT -5
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 11:39:38 GMT -5
I saw an article today where someone did the math and said that for Santorum to win enough delegates, he needs to win all of the remaining primaries with at least 50% of the vote. That seems highly unlikely which means we are virtually certain to see Romney/Obama and a bunch of guys dropping out this week.
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Post by slappy on Mar 6, 2012 11:41:27 GMT -5
Paul is staying in until the convention.
Gingrich should go this week unless he feels a win in Georgia is enough to keep him going but will the money keep coming in?
Santorum isn't going to give up easily and may benefit from Newt dropping out.
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 12:01:39 GMT -5
Mathematically speaking though, if it's true that Santorum needs to win all the remaining primaries with 50% or more, that's not going to happen. Can he win some of them? Sure. But there's no way he'll win all of them and with that kind of margin of victory.
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Post by slappy on Mar 6, 2012 12:10:55 GMT -5
Mathematically speaking though, if it's true that Santorum needs to win all the remaining primaries with 50% or more, that's not going to happen. Can he win some of them? Sure. But there's no way he'll win all of them and with that kind of margin of victory. But does him not winning with 50% of the vote give Romney enough delegates to clinch the nomination or do neither of the men have enough and it's a split convention?
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 12:53:17 GMT -5
Mathematically speaking though, if it's true that Santorum needs to win all the remaining primaries with 50% or more, that's not going to happen. Can he win some of them? Sure. But there's no way he'll win all of them and with that kind of margin of victory. But does him not winning with 50% of the vote give Romney enough delegates to clinch the nomination or do neither of the men have enough and it's a split convention? I think from a mathematical perspective Santorum/Gingrich could take enough delegates to keep Romney from winning 1144 and clinching it. That would throw the nomination to the convention floor though where Romney is likely to win anyway I would think.
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Post by Kliquid on Mar 6, 2012 13:26:32 GMT -5
I saw an article today where someone did the math and said that for Santorum to win enough delegates, he needs to win all of the remaining primaries with at least 50% of the vote. That seems highly unlikely which means we are virtually certain to see Romney/Obama and a bunch of guys dropping out this week. That number is also going off of projected delegate counts which give him states like Minnesota and Iowa, which he is not likely to win the most delegates in. I think from a mathematical perspective Santorum/Gingrich could take enough delegates to keep Romney from winning 1144 and clinching it. That would throw the nomination to the convention floor though where Romney is likely to win anyway I would think. Not Paul, though, right? That mo' er has no chance of winning ANY delegates, right? From a mathematical standpoint, Paul/Santorum/Gingrich are becoming increasingly likely to force a brokered convention, provided that they all stay in to the bitter end.
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 13:54:42 GMT -5
They won't all stay in 'til the bitter end. It's bad for the party and it's a hard sale to the voters. "Vote for me even though I won't win, but we can keep that other guy from winning." Makes you look small and petty as well. Paul hasn't won a single primary yet. It's a stretch to think that he's going to win any going forward. His strategy is flawed and his message isn't resonating with anyone. End of story.
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Post by Kliquid on Mar 6, 2012 15:29:22 GMT -5
I guarantee Paul has more delegates than Gingrich among the states that have happened at this point.
Care to place a wager?
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 16:03:29 GMT -5
I guarantee Paul has more delegates than Gingrich among the states that have happened at this point. Care to place a wager? I would lose because Gingrich will do what he should and drop out and give his delegates to Romney. Paul will refuse to do so just like he did last election cycle.
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Post by Kliquid on Mar 6, 2012 16:17:15 GMT -5
You'd lose the bet because Gingrich has been ing terrible pretty much everywhere but South Carolina. Yet you continually bring up how Paul has no chance of winning, how he's a non-factor, etc., even though he's clearly doing better than Gingrich.
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Post by slappy on Mar 6, 2012 18:36:21 GMT -5
Paul won Maine. I don't care if they officially announced it for Romney. It was stolen from Paul.
Also, I don't care about the declared winners when the delegates matter more. Paul has states that way.
Also, Paul is looking for a few wins tonight.
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 18:36:55 GMT -5
You'd lose the bet because Gingrich has been ing terrible pretty much everywhere but South Carolina. Yet you continually bring up how Paul has no chance of winning, how he's a non-factor, etc., even though he's clearly doing better than Gingrich. And Gingrich is now a non-factor as well.
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Post by Kliquid on Mar 6, 2012 18:42:56 GMT -5
I think from a mathematical perspective Santorum/ Gingrich could take enough delegates to keep Romney from winning 1144 and clinching it. That would throw the nomination to the convention floor though where Romney is likely to win anyway I would think. Then why do you continue to list him here and not Paul? This weird infatuation that you have with proclaiming that Ron Paul has "no chance," while no one has claimed that he is going to win at any time, is a bit much. ... And yes, Ron Paul clearly won Maine, but I don't even really give a crapabout winning the straw poll, which is why I stopped talking about it. As I've said, Paul will almost certainly win the most delegates in Iowa and Maine, maybe even in Minnesota. He will likely also do well in Washington, Colorado and Nevada. If there is a brokered convention forced, it will be because of Ron Paul.
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Post by slappy on Mar 6, 2012 19:03:54 GMT -5
"Ron Paul surge has made Virginia too close to call."
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 21:18:04 GMT -5
I think from a mathematical perspective Santorum/ Gingrich could take enough delegates to keep Romney from winning 1144 and clinching it. That would throw the nomination to the convention floor though where Romney is likely to win anyway I would think. Then why do you continue to list him here and not Paul? This weird infatuation that you have with proclaiming that Ron Paul has "no chance," while no one has claimed that he is going to win at any time, is a bit much. ... And yes, Ron Paul clearly won Maine, but I don't even really give a crap about winning the straw poll, which is why I stopped talking about it. As I've said, Paul will almost certainly win the most delegates in Iowa and Maine, maybe even in Minnesota. He will likely also do well in Washington, Colorado and Nevada. If there is a brokered convention forced, it will be because of Ron Paul. I listed Santorum. You guys brought up Gingrich.
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Post by Kliquid on Mar 6, 2012 21:27:16 GMT -5
All Slappy said is that Gingrich MIGHT stay in if he decides a win in Georgia is enough to continue. He said nothing about taking enough delegates to keep Romney from winning the nomination outright. You said that, SPECIFICALLY without mentioning Paul.
But whatever.
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Post by robinsonben36 on Mar 6, 2012 21:58:11 GMT -5
While I think it's important to weigh the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate, this thing's already over. And by that I mean the 2012 election. Obama's going to pummel whoever survives the GOP bloodbath.
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Post by Hulkamaniac on Mar 6, 2012 22:39:38 GMT -5
All Slappy said is that Gingrich MIGHT stay in if he decides a win in Georgia is enough to continue. He said nothing about taking enough delegates to keep Romney from winning the nomination outright. You said that, SPECIFICALLY without mentioning Paul. But whatever. Paul is a non-factor and never was one. Gingrich used to a factor, but now isn't. Santorum is mathematically eliminated. Clear enough? Really, why do all you Paul supporters have a chip on your shoulder?
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